Issues regarding Birth, Death and Migration:
Issues regarding Birth, Death and Migration:
Before 1921, both death rates and birth rates were high, whereas, after this transitional moment the death rates fall sharply but the birth rate only falls slightly. The principal reasons for the decline in the death rate after 1921 were:
Increased levels of control over famines and epidemic diseases: The later cause was perhaps the most important. The major epidemic diseases in the past were fevers various sorts, plague, smallpox and cholera. But the single biggest epidemic was the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, which killed as many as 125 lakh people, or about 5% of the total population of India at that time.
Improvements in medical cures for these diseases, programmes for mass vaccination and efforts to improve sanitation helped to control epidemics. However, diseases like malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhoea and dysentery continue to kill people even today, although the numbers are nowhere as high as they used to be in the epidemics of the past. Surat witnessed a small epidemic of plague in September 1994, while dengue and chikungunya epidemics have been reported in various parts of the country in 2006..
Famines were also a major and recurring source of increased were cause by high levels of continuing poverty and malnutrition in an agro climatic environment that was very vulnerable to variations in rainfall. Lack of adequate means of transportation and communication as well as inadequate efforts on the part of the state were some of the factors responsible for famines. Substantial improvements in productivity of Indian agriculture (specially through the expansion of irrigation); improved means of communication; and more vigorous relief and preventive measures by
the state have all helped to drastically reduce deaths from famine. Nevertheless, starvation deaths are still reported from some backward region of the country. The National Rural Employment
Guarantee Act is the latest state initiative to tackle the problem of hunger and starvation in rural areas.
Unlike the death rate, the birth rate has not registered a sharp fall. This is because the birth rate is a socio-cultural phenomenon that is relatively slow to change. By and large, increased level of prosperity exerts a strong downward pull on the birth
Once infant mortality rates decline and there is an overall increase in levels of education and awareness, family size begins to fall.
For example: There are very wide variations in the fertility rates across the states of India. Some states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have managed to bring down their fertility rates (TFR) to 2.1 and 1.8 respectively. This means that the average woman in Tamil Nadu produces only 2.1 children, which is the replacement level’ (required to replace herself and her spouse). Kerala’s TFR is actually below the replacement level, which means that the population is going to decline in the future. Many others states like Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka and Maharashtra have fairly low TFRs. But there are some states, notably Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh which still have very high TFRs of 4 or more.
These few states already accounted for almost 45% of the total population as of and they will also account for about half (50%) of the additions to the Indian population up to the year 2026. Uttar Pradesh alone is expected to account for a little less than one quarter (22%) of this increase.
Other factors contributing to lower rate of decline of birth rate are:
Unawareness about and Unavailability of Family Planning methods.
Dominance of Patriarchy Values:
Lack of Empowerment of Women:
Preference for Male-Child:
High Rate of Illiteracy:
Customs of Early Marriage:
The unmanageable growth in population creates many problems like:
1.country cannot provide nutritious food to its people.
2 There is a shortage of space and housing.
- Unemployment grows and the standard of living decline.
- Social Conflict and Competition for Resources
5.The problem is more acute in the rural areas where the majority of our people
I have to be told that it is now These people have to be made aware of the problem of population growth. They ossible to plan the size of the family. People have to realize that it is our own decision which makes our family small or big. It is in our own individual interest as well as in the interest of the country that we should have a small
Other consequences of High Population Growth:
Undue Pressure on Resources.
Persistence of Poverty.
Problems of Housing, Water Scarcity and Food Insecurity.
Effects on Sex Ratio and Change in Age Structure leading to Generation Gap.
Rise of Protest and Movements in Society.
Ghettoization in Residential patterns
Rise in crime and Violence.
Age structure of the Indian Population
The age structure of the population refers to the proportion of persons in different age groups relative to the total population. The ‘age structure’ change in response to changes in levels of development and the average life expectancy. of disease and other factors
Initially, poor medical facilities, prevalence make for a relatively short life span. Moreover, high infant and maternal mortality rates also have an impact on the age structure. With development, quality of life improves and with it the life expectancy also improves. This changes the age structure. Relatively smaller proportions of the population are found in the younger age groups and larger proportions in the older age groups. This is also referred to as of the population. which
the ageing The dependency ratio is a measure comparing the portion of a population is composed of dependents (i.e., elderly people who are too old to work and children who are too young to work) with the portion that is in the working age , generally defined as 15 to 64 years.
A rising dependency ratio is a cause for worry in countries that are facing an ageing population, since it becomes difficult for a relatively smaller proportion of working-age people to carry the burden of providing for a relatively larger proportion of dependents.
On the other hand, a falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic growth and prosperity due to the larger proportion of workers relative to the nonworkers. This is sometimes referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’, or benefit flowing from the changing age structure. However, this benefit is temporary because the larger pool of working age people will eventually turn into nonworking old people.
India has a very young population, that is, the majority of Indians tend to be young and the average age is also less than that for most other countries.
The share of < 15 age group in the total population has come down from its highest level of 42% in 1971 to 35% in 2001.
The share of the 15-60 age group has increased slightly from 53% to 59%, while the share of the 60+ age group is very small but it has begun to increase (form 5% to 7%) over the same period.
But the age composition of the Indian population is expected to change significantly in the next two decades. Most of this change will be at the two ends of the age spectrum-as 0-14 age group will reduce its share by about 11% (from 34% in 2001 to 23% in 2026) while the 60 plus age group will increase its share by about 5% (from 7% in 2001 to about 12% in 2026). Similar to fertility rates, there are wide regional variations in ‘age structure’ as well.
While a state like Kerala is beginning to acquire an age structures like that of the developed countries.
Uttar Pradesh presents a very different picture with high proportions in the younger age groups and relatively low proportions among aged
India is whole is somewhere in the middle, because it includes states like Uttar Pradesh as well as states that are more like Kerala. The bias towards younger age groups in the age structure is believed to be an advantage for India. Like the East Asian economies in the past decades and like Ireland today, India is supposed to be benefiting from a ‘demographic dividend’.
This divided arises from the fact that the current generation of working-age people is a relatively large one and it has only a relatively small preceding generation of old people to support. But there is nothing automatic about this advantage-it needs to be consciously exploited through appropriate policies.
one of the youngest countries in the world. A third of India’s population was years of age in 2000. In 2020, the average Indian will be only 29 years old, compared with an average age of 37 in China and the United States, 45 in Western Europe and 48 in Japan. This implies a large and growing labour force, which can deliver unexpected benefits and prosperity.
‘demographic dividend’ results from an increase in the relative to non-workers in the population. In terms of age, the working population is roughly that between 15 and 64 years of age. This working age group must support itself as well as those outside this age group (i.e., children and elderly people) who are unable to work and are therefore dependents. Changes in the age structure due to the demographic transition lower the ‘dependency ratio’, or the ratio of non-working age to working-age population, thus creating the potential for generation growth.
But this potential can be converted into actual growth only if the rise in the working age group is accompanied by increasing levels of education and employment. If the new entrants to the labour force are not educated then their productivity remains low If they remain unemployed, then they are unable to earn at all and become dependents rather than earners.
Thus, changing age structure by itself cannot guarantee any benefits unless it is properly utilized through planned development. The real problem is in defining the dependency ratio of non-workers to workers. The difference between the two is determined by the extent of unemployment and underemployment, which keep a part of the labour force out of productive work. This difference explains why some countries are able to exploit the demographic advantage while others are not.
India is indeed facing a window of opportunity created by the demographic dividend. The effect of demographic trends on the dependency ratio defined in terms of age groups is quite visible. The total dependency ratio fell from 79 in 1970 to 64 in 2005. But the process is likely to extend well into this century with the age-based dependency ratio projected to fall to 48 in 2025 because of continued fall in the proportion of children and then rise to 50 by 2050 because of an increase in the proportion of the aged.
The problem, however, is employment. Data from the National Sample Survey studies of 1999-2000 and from the 200 Census of India reveal a sharp fall in the rate of employment generation creation of new jobs across both rural and urban areas. This is true for the young as well.
The rate of growth of employment in the 15-30 age groups, which stood at around 2.4 per cent a year between 1987 and 1994 of both rural and urban men, 0.7 for rural men and 0.3 per cent for urban men during 1994 to 2004. This suggests that the advantage offered by a young labour force is not being exploited. fell to
Strategies exist to exploit the demographic window of opportunity that India has today. But India’s recent experience suggests that market forces by themselves do not ensure that such strategies would be implemented. Unless a way forward is found, we may miss out on the potential benefits that the country’s changing age structure temporarily offers.